I am going to take a break. I am not sure if its my edge that has gone, the fact that i cant use API software, me picking the wrong matches or really, really bad variance – but the fact is that I am loosing on a daily basis now, and i wont tolerate that.
I am going to figure out what i will do, and IF I continue, I will use much smaller stakes – I need to make the fun come back, and its no fun at the moment.
In a previous post, I wrote about the “gamechanger” in the danish trading landscape – since we are no longer granted access to the Betfair API, and therefore we can not use the API products such as The Geeks Toy, Betangel etc.
I am mostly trading the longer swings in tennis markets (and a few others), so was preyy sure that it would not affect my edge much, but I was proven wrong. Some of my strats are unaffected, but some of the other strats requires me to enter in the middle of a service game, and that has proved tricky on the betfair website. It has cost me a lot, not getting the right prices and missing entries because I did not get in in the right spot.
With that said, I am also experiencing the worst bad variance EVER. In the last 3 weeks, my bank has gone down almost 10%, which is not acceptable. Looking through my results (cant state the importance of track keeping enough) I see it as a combination of bad varience and the new order of play, trading directly from the website. Below is a graph of the profit curve, compared to the line I call “the hope”, which is the curve I hoped to follow long term.
The top spike is excatly the 9. of April, the day they turned the API down for all danes. Looking at the overall picture, its not a disaster, but looking at it in a 6 months range…..
….the losses are way to big. I think one of the reasons for this is that I am BOTH upping stakes (staking % of bankroll) AND learning and adjusting. However, I have decided to lower stakes untill I have proven my edge trading directly from Betfair.
Take care and good luck
After the new “order of play”, meaning me trading directly from the Betfair homepage, I took some rather large losses, some where my own fault, and some where due to the new interface on the webpage (which ultimatly also makes it my own fault:-)) I decided to lower stakes again, to not expose the bank to any danger. Still think that my edge will work, but its a bit harder, and it does make me skip some of the “faster” entries, especially in the thinner markets.
There is a new blog/homepage, with very good writeups and previews on the tennis – www.tennisratings.co.uk – go have a visit, its very well written, and provides a good basis for some solid trading.
Betfair Denmark has now closed all access to the Betfair API from danish accounts. I am working on adopting my trading to work within the Betfair homepage, and despite some problems with the slow update, which will cost a few ticks here and there, its seems possible to adopt to the new frame.
Clay season has only just begun, but I can really feel the difference and the profit in the last 14 days is larger than the combined profit from the first 2 months of the year! Been adding almost 10% to the starting bank.
Gonna try and update about the trading from the website, and also regarding the API situation. The ability to include the danish “NemID” solution into the trading software should be possible with the release of the next Betfair API. Thats does not man that the software vendors are going to do it, though.
At the end of April, the access to API products like AGT pro will be banned from DK. As a part of the new “so called liberal” gambling law in Denmark, a new digital solution for logging in at the bookies was introduced. The official reason was to protect the gamblers, by adding extra security. I just wonder how everybody is able to log in on the mobile devices, without using the solution, so one might get the idea that its just for the goverment to earn some more taxes, and when they realised they where missing out on the mobile market, they let that slip through – but why would a goverment do something like that (they also own the company selling the secure log-in solution – lol).But i surely understand that we cannot have a few nerds sitting trading from API product – they need to be protected!
Clay season is back, despite only one tournamet this week. Monday was good, and i adapted to the new surface very well, if I might say so myself. Tuesday was more of a grind, but I have also been struggling with ilness, so I reckon that even getting good greens would have felt hard to me:-)
Yesterday was perfect. All trades was winners, and my reading of the market was good. I hope that its not just positive variance.
I im trying to trade off Betfairs homepage now, to get used to the new situation. Its actually not that difficult, as I am not that much involved in the market, and the “green out” option is very cool.
Also trying to get back into betting more. I seem to have picked up some knowledge about the tennisplayers over the last years, so trying to put that into good use, and also feeling that the bank need to “do more work”.
Screendump of the progress – gonna add the “target curve” next time, as the file is on a different computer.
When reading around on the different blogs, it seems people find that the Paribas Open tournament has decent liquidity despite not being televised (think that begins today). Only been trading the early evening matches, but i seem to find the liq rather poor, and especially in the odds around 2ish, its easy to get caught in a bad position.
Therefore I mostly traded matches in which i have a very strong opinion on who will win, or I wait til the second set, to get prices at a lower level or when the liq has gotten better.
The HC season really bores the s…. out of me, and I was so happy to look back on my blog (and the stats), to see that the early year last season was also one looooong grind. It only takes a few losses to start wondering if the edge from last season has dissappeared:-) (thats why record keeping is essential)
Now off for Budapest with the family – looking forward to some outdoor thermal baths, some good food and beer, and hopefully getting the batteries recharged (prolly the kids gonna disagree on that).
Its not often I let the trading affect my temper or mood (not much anyway), but the last 2 days i seem to have hit all the unluck in the world. Yes, I am aware that its just variance, but today it seriously felt like the market was looking right at me, waiting to kill me:-)
Next few days I am off for family time and hopefully a few beers.