End of season

Wanted to do a long year-round-up, but as regular readers will know, this year I have been struggling a lot with pain in my hands (this should be fixed with surgert in december), so will keep it short!

Not done the usual amounts of trades this year, and besides it being because of the health problems I also struggled a lot with my strats, as the markets seem to have evolved/changed a lot this year, making many of my strats very hard to make profit from.

Instead, I have worked with some new strats, and also, since I have upped stakes this year and also gaining confidence in my trading, I actually have no problem in doing fewer trades. Here is a screendump of the year, where I have recorded 660 trades:

2014

The big ups and downs are due to withdrawing and moving money around, as my trading is not really that risky:-)

I am very confident in the new year, as my “new strats” project has resulted in 3 new strats, who all seems to work. 2 of them I did not use that much, and has only recorded 58 and 18 trades, so cant really say that the numbers prove them good, but since they are not completly new, I will keep using them next year. Also, I also think that i have traded like 20% of the time i used to trade this year, so the testing has been very slow.

Here are some screendumps of them:

Tyttebreak Wildshot

The one one top is mostly based on and excel file, linked to a database which helps me identify good prospecs for trading in tiebreaks – therefore I have called it “Tyttebreak” – tadaaaa…

The other one is one, where I identify value on underdogs, and enters at specific points in the match if and when (and thats important) they occur.

The last and the best one is this one:

WSS

I really likes this one, as its based on and old, proved strat, combined with something Dan at tennisratings.co.uk learned me, combined with some “tweaking” of my own. I love it, since it lets me put in a lot of entrypoints, and the win loss ratio is so good that i can use really large amounts (when the markets allows it, another very important thing to remember).

It looks very dramatic, but since I stake expotential, it goes more up in good times and vica versa in bad times.

Remember, when you work on a strat, dont expect to find a money machine, as its not very likely to happen – hard work pays off.

Hoping to post more next year, and take good care!

Tyttetrading – https://twitter.com/Tyttetrading

Lack of posts

Sorry for the lack of posts, still struggling with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome, which might end in and operation soon, which will hopefully relieve the pains in my hands.

Enough crying, this blog is about betting and trading, and not about me getting old and worn out.

Tyttebets 17-28 was on my twitterprofile as usual – https://twitter.com/Tyttetrading – and profit is now +4,29.

Bets for the weekend – #Tyttebets number 29-32 is here:

Sønderjydske-FC Copenhagen X odds 3,59

Southampton-QPR X odds 4,65

Liverpool-Everton X 3,83

Esbjerg-Brøndby X 3,42

All at Pinnacle

Have a nice weekend

Tyttebet 15 and 16

Last Tyttebet was a loser and balance is now 2,61.

Tyttebet 15 and 16 is:

Brøndby-OB – draw at odds 3,66 with Pinnacle

Esbjerg-Silkeborg – draw at odds 3,79 also with Pinnacle

More to come!

T

Tyttebet number 14

Last bet, Uruguray +0,5 was a winner, and the Tyttebet balance is now 3,61 after 14 picks.

Today I like Lisicki +4,5 games against in-form Halep. I see Halep win, but the recent quality of the opponents is much lower than the opponents whom Lisicki has met. Its 2-1 H2H, and the matchup calls for a close match, possibly with few breaks.

Odds 1,793 @ Pinnacle.

Best regards

T

Tyttebet number 13 (!)

Really dont understand the odds on England today – almost a 50% chance of them winning – not a chance.

Placing my money on Uruguay +0,5 at odds 1,875 with Bet365 or Pinnaclesports.

Very entertaining world cup so far, and the time of play is perfect for the work/trading/telly combo.

Best regards

T

The dead of trading edges

In a previous post about the markets maturing, I mentioned that and edge I used to have, was no longer valueable, and that made me want to look into the numbers of some of the strats I used to use (and sometimes still do, depending on the prices). Back in the early 2012, the tennis markets where full of overreactions, which often lead to prices representing value. I am not saying that everybody could make good money, but taking into consideration how little I knew about the sport tennis and the tennis players, it was amazing how much profit there was to be made from following simple rules (which is often actually the difficult part). Many of us learned the basic from PDK, who used to have a tradingroom and made daily previews, which we then followed and debated in a paltalk chatroom.

Here is a picture of how the profit from one of the strats looks from 2012 to the start of 2014 and as you can see, the profit is decreasing.

BHE

In the beginning, the profit was amazing, and in one year I turned a starting bank of 1700 into 50000! The decrease could of course being me getting worse or loosing my discipline, but I am pretty sure thats not the case. I have heard from many other traders that the markets and the prices have changed, which is also my point of view.

Here is the curve from another, less used, strat (110 matches recorded):

WS

Fortunatly over the years my interest and knowledge about the players has grown and I am now able to trade more based on that. I have been tweaking a new strat, and so far (small numbers so far) it looks like this:

WSS

I am now only trading matches which is streamed and with a good liquidity, and that makes me able to focus much more on the matches I trade.

Will keep you updated about the trading.

Take care in the markets!

T

 

Tyttebet update and more

And update on the bets i put on twitter – hashtag “Tyttebets”.

In the last posts I was +6,17 and had 3 open bets, which all where lost (that happens when going after the higher odds). That gave us a profit of 3,17. Then Fognini was rightfully booed off the court in his match against Nadal. He lost and only winning 4 games and thereby not cover the line of +6 games. Status +2,17 units after 9 bets. Last 3 bets gave one winner and two losses, the winner being my local team Sønderjydske getting a draw against AGF. We are now +2,73 after 12 bets. More to come.

I have not been trading a lot, since the live-coverage from the Miami tournament was very poor. I am not sure why, but its hard to understand that some evenings there where zero streams from the WTA matches of a 1000 point tournament. Guess the money rules (or something). Trading wise, those few matches I have been trading went pretty good, and after a long streak of loosing, it feels good to get some nice greens again. Looking forward for trading more in the coming weeks, as there are more tournaments and some Davis Cup matches.

Good luck in the markets.

T